Poll Track | McCain falling in South Carolina

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Last week we reported that a poll would be released showing a significant drop in McCain’s popularity.  That Whit Ayers poll was released on Friday and reported by the Greenville News’ Dan Hoover.

In 2000, John McCain pulled 42% of the vote.  After six years of campaigning and hitting the Sunday morning talk show circuit every single weekend, McCain dropped to 35% in a public poll released in December.  Now McCain has dropped to 29%.

That’s good news for the rest of the crowd, but they still have a long way to go.  Giuliani dropped 8 points while Romney picked up 1 point.  Perhaps the best news for Giuliani and Romney is that McCain spent millions of dollars reaching out to voters in 2000, while Romney and Giuliani have spent virtually no money reaching out to the general populace.  They have both however reached out to the hard core party activists, no more than a couple thousand people statewide.

The McCain crew wants us to believe that with their numerous endorsements this game is all but over.  But the numbers show that if McCain keeps falling while Romney and Giuliani come in and unleash strong war-chests, this is going to be a real race.

The wild card is Newt Gingrich who currently polls at 14%, a full 8 % ahead of Romney.  This is obviously because Gingrich has a high name i.d. and Romney has virtually none.  The questions are – will Gingrich jump in and if not, will where his votes go?

Jan. 24-28 | 500 likely voters 

McCain – 29%
Giuliani – 20%
Gingrich – 14 %
Romney – 6%
Brownback – 2%
Huckabee – 2%
Hunter – 2%
Tancredo – 1%
Undecided – 23%

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