Archive for the ‘Polling’ category

Poll Track | McCain falling in South Carolina

February 6, 2007

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Last week we reported that a poll would be released showing a significant drop in McCain’s popularity.  That Whit Ayers poll was released on Friday and reported by the Greenville News’ Dan Hoover.

In 2000, John McCain pulled 42% of the vote.  After six years of campaigning and hitting the Sunday morning talk show circuit every single weekend, McCain dropped to 35% in a public poll released in December.  Now McCain has dropped to 29%.

That’s good news for the rest of the crowd, but they still have a long way to go.  Giuliani dropped 8 points while Romney picked up 1 point.  Perhaps the best news for Giuliani and Romney is that McCain spent millions of dollars reaching out to voters in 2000, while Romney and Giuliani have spent virtually no money reaching out to the general populace.  They have both however reached out to the hard core party activists, no more than a couple thousand people statewide.

The McCain crew wants us to believe that with their numerous endorsements this game is all but over.  But the numbers show that if McCain keeps falling while Romney and Giuliani come in and unleash strong war-chests, this is going to be a real race.

The wild card is Newt Gingrich who currently polls at 14%, a full 8 % ahead of Romney.  This is obviously because Gingrich has a high name i.d. and Romney has virtually none.  The questions are – will Gingrich jump in and if not, will where his votes go?

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Guess the Ivy League ain’t what it used to be

January 25, 2007

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Newsweek just released a Princeton Survey Research Associates poll showing former NC Senator and candidate for VP, John Edwards, leading the pack in head to head match-ups for President.  Now the BS radar started buzzing and whirling so we had to take a closer look despite the overwhelming gag reflex.  Now we know that Republicans aren’t too hot right now as a whole and President Bush is fairing even worse, but John Edwards?

So, after taking a quick peek at the sample we found that it contained 37% Democrats to 26% Republicans and a whopping 33% were Independents.  It doesn’t even go into sex or race, and we all know that in polling an accurate sample, that matters.  Shame on you people.  If all you have is crap, don’t try to put it in a bowl with a cherry on top and call it chocolate ice cream.  Our guess is that it doesn’t take a group of Ivy Leaguers out there to figure out why the results are what they are.  Anyone else?

Now I have just a few more questions so we can describe the people who took part in our survey. Regardless of how you might have voted in recent elections, in politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

Total   RVs
25 Republican 26%
36 Democrat 37%
35 Independent 33%
2 No party/Not interested 2%
* Other party *
2 Don’t know 2%
100   100%

SC Presidential Polling

January 10, 2007

American Research Group:  Statewide poll of 600 likely Republican and 600 likely Democrat voters.  +/- 4%

“If the 2008 Republican presidential preference primary were being held today, for whom would you vote?”

 

12/21-23/06   4/25-5/2/06  
% %      
John McCain 35 39
Rudy Giuliani 28 13
Newt Gingrich 15 5
Mitt Romney 5 2
Mike Huckabee 1
Sam Brownback
Jim Gilmore n/a
Chuck Hagel
Duncan Hunter n/a
George Pataki
Tommy Thompson n/a
Undecided 16 38
Bill Frist n/a 2
George Allen n/a 1

.

“If the 2008 Democratic presidential preference primary were being held today, for whom would you vote?”

.

12/21-23/06 2/2-9/06      
% %      
Hillary Clinton 34 30
John Edwards 31 15
Barack Obama 10 n/a
John Kerry 3 4
Joe Biden 2 1
Wesley Clark 2 2
Dennis Kucinich 2 n/a
Bill Richardson 1
Christopher Dodd n/a
Mike Gravel n/a
Tom Vilsack n/a
Undecided 15 36
Al Gore n/a 8
Mark Warner n/a 2
Evan Bayh n/a 1
Russ Feingold n/a 1
Tom Daschle n/a